Not Cease from Exploration

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Predictions

Now normally I don't do predictions. Not about the weather, not about sports, and especially not about politics. Why? Well I think part of it is that I'm pretty much as scientist at heart, and the "art" of prediction involves understanding variables. In the case of politics, there simply are too many variable, some of which are simply too difficult for me to understand. Yes, I am no Terry Madonna.

Anyway, Steve Urbanski was kind enough to ask for the following:

Democratic PA US Senate, Democratic PA Governor, Republican PA Governor, Democratic 11th Congressional, Republican 10th Congressional, Democratic PA 14th Senate, and Democratic 22nd Senate.

So I'm going to oblige, although I may also be cheating by posting this here (in addition to mailing them to him). Anyway, I'm sure I'll regret this...

Democratic PA US Senate: Arlen Specter
By a nose hair. Proof positive that, if you throw enough mud, some will eventually stick. Arlen should be ashamed of himself though over the swiftboating of Joe Sestak.

Democratic PA Governor: Dan Onorato
Why? Well why not. Honestly I haven't been following the race, so this is as much about who impresses me as it is anything else. Hoeffel does has the more "Dutchy" sounding name though, which may mean something in parts of the state.

Republican PA Governor: Tom Corbett
Regardless of the primary win, he will lose in the general election, although it will be much closer than if the GOP picks Sam Rohrer. Mr Rohrer doesn't get that there are many Pennsylvanians who aren't so impressed with the whole Tea Party thing. Hard-core social conservatives are not a majority of the voting population in Pennsylvania. Quick, name the last hard-core social conservative to serve as governor...trick question, I know.

Democratic 11th Congressional: Paul Kanjorski
Corey O'Brien as a candidate is more style than substance...half term county commissioner doesn't exactly qualify you for much of anything, other than maybe county commissioner. Kanjorski seems to be doing okay without actually having to work (or spend) all that much, which will help in the general election. Looks like Kanjorski will not be getting that Wall Street lobbyist job after all.

Republican 10th Congressional: Honestly, I haven't a clue.
Tom Marino should have this, well if it wasn't for the close ties to a certain well known local casino owner.

Democratic 14th Senate: Tom Leighton
I really don't follow things down in "the gulch" all that closely, but it seems to me that John Yudichak smells of per diem.

Democratic 22nd Senate: Chris Doherty
Not that I want Doherty to win (I'd prefer that he stay as Mayor of Scranton), but he's simply the best campaigner in this race. The other candidates...

...people don't understand the whole Chuck Volpe "you don't need to pay me" thing
...Wansacz smells of per diem
...Corcoran seems to think he doesn't need to campaign, as he is the "endorsed" candidate (he's wrong)
...no one outside of Olyphant (or some other 'burg "up the line") knows who Blake is
...and Phillips just isn't well enough known.

Note that while I don't endorse candidates, if I did I'd probably give the nod to Phillips, who is a bright, bright guy...he should win, although I don't think he will win.

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